AI Market Share

How it was born

It was published on June 22, 2026, on the same day as StoryMaker, as the first two entries of what was then called the vibecoding page. The brief was a single sentence, who is winning, and the first thing the build settled was that the answer changes every eighteen months and that a static chart would be a lie by the time it loaded.

So the chart moves. A bar chart race, one frame per period, with the bars reordering as players rise and fall. Pause it on any year and the picture of that year is the picture that was true then, not the one that is true now.

What it does

• Four races, one per tab: AI assistants and large language models, image generation, video generation, and 3D generation. Around sixty series in all, from the research era of BERT and StyleGAN to the current crop.
• Two lenses on the assistants: consumer usage, and enterprise measured as API spend. They do not rank the same players in the same order, which is the point of showing both.
• Pause, replay, reorder on or off, and every tab and year has its own link, so a view can be sent as it is.
• Export to MP4, timestamped, for the deck where the chart will end up anyway.

What the numbers are

Estimates, and the app says so under the chart. The series are illustrative trend estimates, not official market data, normalised to 100 percent per period. The early years mostly reflect research-lab prominence, GPT-1, BERT, GPT-3; the consumer market tips with ChatGPT, then Gemini, Claude, Grok and DeepSeek arrive. The 2026 points are anchored to mid-2026 web-traffic estimates, ChatGPT around 47 to 55 percent, Gemini around 27, Claude around 10, from a June 2026 TechCrunch report and First Page Sage's chatbot rankings. Both are linked from the app.

That is the caveat, and it is not small. A chart of estimates that moves is more honest than a chart of estimates that stands still, because motion is what the estimates are actually about. It is still a chart of estimates. Read it as a shape, not as a figure.